The first Welsh barometer poll of 2020 made powerful reading this week, setting a new record high for Conservative polling in Wales. The headline scores for a Westminster election were 41% to them, 36% to a struggling Labour Party, and just 13% to Plaid Cymru. This is what has captured the headlines…

Yet there is an equally remarkable polling outcome for the next Assembly elections, with the forecasts coming out as 35%, 33% and 19% respectively. These are striking figures which, if they are in any way replicated in 2021, will result in an even bigger political earthquake than the Assembly experienced with the arrival of the then forceful UKIP in 2016.

Yes, yes we know the next Assembly election is fifteen months away. And yes everything can change. And yes the only poll that counts is the one on Election Day. But… Labour simply cannot wish this poll away. It spells further grim news for them.

Back in December Mark Drakeford offered the rather glib defence of Labour’s performance in that, with 22 MPs out of 40 from Wales, they were still the biggest party. Looking at the most extrapolation of this poll, Labour would end up with 24 seats (19 constituency and 5 regional, including 3 regional members in north wales), compared to 22 for the Conservatives and 13 for Plaid.

If such brutal circumstances came to pass, would Drakeford once more take comfort that Labour had the most elected AMs of any party? And believe us that there is increasing disquiet amongst Labour members who could lose their seats that not enough is being done to enable their political survival…